I have been avoiding writing about
this. After publishing this, I will
either eat these words, or they will be just one more marker about how pathetic
the whole affair is. Naturally, I hope
that it will be the latter. Like I was
saying, as anyone who has been watching the news can see, our neighbor to the
north has been saying and doing some rather loud and obnoxious things. I know that many of you back home are
wondering how we are doing and I have spoken to many of you already. However, I think it high time that I post something
publicly, given the latest events that have happened both internationally and
personally.
We’re fine and I am not afraid.
That’s about as plainly as I can say it,
and there are a lot of reasons why. Before
I get into that, here is a short summary of everything that has been
happening. North Korea’s newest head of
the party Kim Jung Un (no, he isn’t the head of state, that honor is reserved
for Kim Il Sun, his long dead grandfather…yes their head of state is a dead
man) has been stirring up trouble by conducting an underground nuclear test,
launching a long range missile, declaring the armistice (there was no peace
treaty) between the South and themselves null and void, and just yesterday told
both the foreign missions in their own borders and the expats living in South
Korea to get out of dodge by the 10th. Basically, they have done everything short of
actually massing troops at the border to prepare for war. I am not worried, and neither are most of the
locals.
Things have been escalating for a long
time since Kim Jung Il died. Not to say
that things were pink butterflies and rainbows before that, in fact there were
2 major incidents in 2010 including the sinking of a South Korean Ship and the Artillery
attack on a border island. Take a look
here for a full list of incidents. And yet, I
am not worried about a war breaking out.
Is there still a chance of one breaking out? Sure, but even then I feel perfectly safe
here. Korea is similar to Israel with mandatory
military service for all men (I know Israel includes women, while South Korea
does not). Sure, the North has virtually every person in their country as a
potential member of the military, but remember that they had a recent famine
and that South Korea has 3 times the population. This is not including the 50,000 American
forces that are stationed here, and the recent declaration by Japan that they
would start deploying forces to be ready for anything.
Any outbreak of violence will not end with North Koreans doing well in
the end. The only factor that could make
this whole situation a lot worse is China.
Should they choose to come in on the side of their traditional ally,
then this could be a problem. However,
that seems highly unlikely. Consider
that China even joined in on the most recent round of trade sanctions. Moreover, China has suffered greatly for the
majority of the last century. Their
people are tired and want a measure of stability, and the Chinese government is
doing something about it. This is
perhaps the only thing that has prevented the pro-democratic riots from
breaking out again since the famous Tiananmen Square Massacre. Back when President G.W. Bush was looking for
easy cash to help finance his tax cuts and the two very expensive wars waged in
Iraq and Afghanistan, China was happy to provide support by buying US treasury
bonds. China is heavily invested in the
status quo, not only internally, but internationally as well.
The big question is why are they doing all this? The simple answer (as I have come to see it)
is this, internal North Korean politics.
Kim Jung Un is trying to stir up tension, so that he can look strong and
aggressive to the Generals and the party elites. Not much has gone beyond rhetoric.
On Monday I heard that one of my last co-workers from Avalon has
decided to head home. This was mostly in
response to the North’s decree that all foreigners had get out of the South
Korea. A lot of people are torn up about
that, including Emma herself, her students, and many others. I and the vast majority of others that I know
here are staying right where we are.
For years we have heard empty threat after empty threat. Most of the locals feel as I do, that the
North is using the most powerful weapon that they have, fear. They have lived under this possibility, with skirmishes
happening here and there for nearly 60 years.
This time is no different save one thing. The North is partially cognizant of how
foolish they look.
Below is a clip of a North Korean expert I found on an Aussie News
network, enjoy.
